- Bloomberg New Energy Finance expects EV sales to grow exponentially
- General Motors has criticized President Biden's EV sales goals as unrealistic
- California aims to end the sale of most vehicles with an ICE by 2035
EVs could make up almost a third of U.S. new-car sales by 2027, assuming current policies remain in place, according to a Bloomberg New Energy Finance report published in July.
Automakers sold 1.5 million new EVs in the U.S. last year, accounting for 10% of the new-car market, but BNEF expects sales to increase to 4.5 million vehicles in 2027, on the way to 48% market share by 2030. That would nearly meet President Biden's goal of 50% EV sales by the end of the decade without new policy interventions, BNEF notes, a goal General Motors has criticized as unrealistic.
2024 Hyundai Ioniq 5
This would also put the U.S. on track for 7.7 million EV sales by 2030, BNEF predicts, setting up the ramp to 67% EV sales by 2032, as predicted by the EPA based on its latest round of emissions standards. That's assuming the 2024 presidential election doesn't bring policy change. Former President Trump's overall EV policy is shaping up into something that could subsidize gasoline vehicles, from some perspectives.
BNEF expects California to continue leading the nation in EV sales. In 2023, one in four new vehicles sold in California had a charge port, and EVs are expected to account for 65% of new car sales in the state in 2030 and 90% in 2040, after stricter emissions rules go into effect.
2025 Volkswagen ID.4
In 2035, California aims to end sales of most vehicles with combustion engines, but with a carve out for plug-in hybrids with at least 50 miles of electric range. Toyota is advocating plug-in hybrids, BNEF notes, and aims to push their electric range as high as 120 miles. But BNEF doesn't expect the U.S. market share for plug-in hybrids to expand beyond the 20% to 25% it's sat at in recent years, and predicts global plug-in hybrid sales will peak at 10% of the market in 2030.
Globally, BNEF expects EV sales growth to continue. EV sales are predicted to rise 21% annually to 2027, after average growth of over 60% between 2020 and 2023. EV market share in the U.S. will likely be lower than China and Europe, where BNEF expects EVs to compose 60% and 41% of the market by 2027, respectively.
